mardi 5 avril 2011

The price moves without reason

2.1. Technical analysis
This is my strongest position.
There is no technical analysis that can predict price.
Technical analysis is a very good discipline for describing and justifying the past,
but definitely not for earning money operating on the market in the present.
Directional traders often support this. What also helps me here, are the completely
informal conversations I have had with traders who live from trading on the stock
market or on the Forex and who have spoken to me about how their strategy, is
based on studying the price but also takes into consideration previous key levels,
and only works because of the care taken to enter into the position at the right
moment and only earns because of care with risk management.
When I talk about risk management in my courses, the audience only pays attention
because of the word “risk”, and all the rest is just boring as people want to hear
about profits, and definitely not about how to manage their own operational plan:
management does not fascinate anybody.
In this book you will learn that technical analysis is the result of the amount of
money operators put into the game and not the opposite.
A resistance does not only form because the price reacts psychologically to a
specific past price level.
If no money was involved, the price would not go anywhere.
A level of support results if money flows in the market but the fact that those
movements correspond with a support, does not tell us if it will be a support, or a
“broken support”.
What should I do when I read about the presence of a support on a chart? Do I buy
it, thinking that it works as support, or do I sell it, thinking that there will be a
breakout?
Is this not the same thing as deciding to buy or to sell at any time?

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